Decision Making Under Risk: Questions and Answers Guide

Justyna Wachulka-Chan

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Risk vs. Uncertainty

  • Risk: A situation where outcomes can be quantified.

  • Uncertainty: Future outcomes are unknown and cannot be assigned probabilities.

Probabilities & Expected Values

  • Expected Value (EV): A weighted average of possible outcomes, useful for decision-making.

  • Standard Deviation: Measures volatility and risk in predictions.

  • Coefficient of Variation: Used for comparing risks across different datasets.

Decision-Making Strategies

  • Risk-Seeker: Chooses strategies with the highest possible outcomes.

  • Risk-Neutral: Uses expected value as a decision criterion.

  • Risk-Averse: Prioritizes avoiding risk, using maximin or minimax regret approaches.

Decision Tools

  • Pay-off Tables: Displays all possible profits or losses from decisions.

  • Decision Trees: Diagrammatically represent decision problems with probabilities.

  • Sensitivity Analysis: Examines how much a variable must change before a decision is reversed.

Strengths & Weaknesses of Decision Methods

  • Expected Value

    • ✅ Simple to calculate, accounts for risk

    • ❌ Can be subjective, ignores range of possible outcomes

  • Sensitivity Analysis

    • ✅ Identifies critical variables, helps decision-makers focus

    • ❌ Does not account for the probability of changes occurring

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About the Author

Justyna Wachulka-Chan

Justyna is a seasoned professional with 8 years of dedicated experience in the computer-based accounting and finance certification coaching industry. She is committed to providing students with the knowledge and tools necessary to succeed on their exams.

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